Beware the Coalition
Trust Easter was enjoyable for our readers. For us on Zero Hours contracts a fairly expensive way to enjoy chocolate! A long time ago now. But a weekend in Valencia has sharpened my pencil. As have the discussions with hoteliers and market stall vendors out there. They are all staggered at the flack the UK’s fastest winning party has been taking.
BBC, Kellner on the left & the Sun and the Tories to the right are starting to make their moves. As predicted.
The Coalition that could never surely repeat – well per a very well informed Spectator article last month, Tories and LibDems have met twice already to pre-agree the terms of Coalition 2 – this time its personal.
As we enter the final straight it seems quite apparent that 3 things are starting to happen.
(1) the massed ranks of the political elite are now well and truly repeating each other to a man and playing down UKIP’s chances everywhere. EU funded YouGov continues to peddle the propaganda that we shall only have Douglas Carswell and Clacton at Westminster a week tomorrow. Interesting that given the now “sacrosanct” (when ukip support falls) poll of polls shows 14% UKIP to 8% LibDems yet the statistically incompetent Kellner still shows 17 wins for Saint Nick. Shocking really.
(2) Sturgeon actually the Red Herring.
With SNP Scottish polls ranging between 45 and 54 % ( and 45 and all 59 of Scotland’s MPs) it seems to be that nearly all commentators have missed one key point. The fact the rises and falls are traditionally over-stated when viewed with the glasses of Harry Hindsight. I think its clear for all to see now that only George Osborne has realised that. The old adage of “how fast do you need to be to outrun a bear” – correct answer, “just a little bit faster than you” has never been truer. If the Tories are the largest single party in NUMBER OF SEATS terms, they gte to go first. My prediction of a year ago was CON 290, LAB 270, SNP 40, LibDem 30, UKIP 5 and 15 the rest. And it still looks good to me. This would mean LibCon at 320 plus our Nigel get to govern for the next 5 years and “finish off the mess” they have got themselves into.
Clearly Dave will go hunting out the Ulster Unionists first – but I like the look of the polls!
(3) Secret Salmond actually the right’s greatest ally
The scaremongering has started to work. 4 million Scots getting to dictate what 50 million English get to do will just not be tolerated – and even were they to get away with a parliament, the ensuing win in the Holyrood elections and the associated “Referendum2″ will finish off the UK has a Socialist haven hopefully once and forever.
Election night is always good fun. Watch out for the Pretend debates with Mr Dimbleby tonight, and then prepare for a couple of proper shock UKIP results Friday week. Expect something Welsh, something Northern and something completely unexpected. In Eastern too!
You heard it here first!
Have a good evening