Herts and Minds
Friday: our recently appointed Hertfordshire Chairwoman Vesper, spoke at our November branch meeting and asked for contributions TO and feedback ON her now monthly Newsletter of the above title.
Attached to this post are issues one and two. Take a look – cogitate, deliberate and digest – and whilst so doing ask yourself if there is an article, policy idea or local issue that you would like to bring to the attention of the wider Herts membership.
Like most publications – web, written, social media, other – it will only ever be as good as the quality and quantity of contributions from the Welwyn Hatfield membership and supporters more generally.
We go into the New Year with Lord Ashcroft’s last national poll of 2014 showing UKIP at 19% and rising. The conventional political wisdom is of course that UKIP peak every 4 years at the EU elections (true) – and then fall away to roughly half those levels by the next General Election. With activity, membership growth, quality local and PPC candidates this is one trend that we should all be looking to buck in 2015. And we will. Once we get past the 20% tipping point I think we can be confident.
My views on the statistically appalling analyses produced by YouGov are dotted around this website. A set of accademics whose predictions I think are more trustworthy than most can be found at the “UK election forecast” website. These 3 folk were the first to fly-in-the-face of the LibLabCon controlled polling organisations and state that UKIP WOULD win seats at the 2015 General Election. I still think they have some factors not-yet-included in their guess above right, BUT with 3 MPs for UKIP they are massively nearer to the mark than ComRes, YouGov, Survation and the other Murdoch manipulations. Who of course are told to project NIL!!!
For the record UK Election Forecast acknowledge Clacton, Thurrock and Boston & Skegness as odds on UKIP wins next May. When they all also lineup Thanet South, Great Yarmouth and Basidlon South & East Thurrock you will know that their forecasting model is cooking on gas.
Have yourselves a very merry Christmas. And see you at the December 16th branch meeting and every month thereafter.
Keep the faith.